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dianelos@tecapro.com
medicine forum beginner
Joined: 15 Nov 2005
Posts: 2
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 Posted: Tue Nov 15, 2005 8:33 am Post subject:
This is probably an unworkable idea about how to stop the flu pandemic under the WCS
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This post discusses an idea about how to counter an avian flu pandemic
under the worse case scenario. In that scenario humanity loses the race
against the virus: the fabric of society is destroyed so quickly that
vaccine production or distribution cannot be completed. Flu survivors
die of starvation in large numbers. Civilization is sent back a hundred
years.
The idea is simple: Starting now and continuing up to the probable
pandemic try to engineer a highly contagious but less lethal form of
the prevalent virus. Quickly produce a sufficient quantity of this
artificial virus and store it. If the worse really came to worse
dispense that artificial virus over cities worldwide in order to deny
the natural H5N1 strain that started the pandemic its evolutionary
niche. We are basically talking about a quick-and-dirty worldwide
vaccination with a live virus.
I don't know if we have the technology for quickly producing such
artificial viruses, for estimating their contagiousness and lethality,
and for producing them in sufficient quantity. (Some biological weapons
laboratories would come handy :-(
If we have that technology then I think we should start using it now
and be prepared just in case, by using influenza's virulence to our
advantage. Here is some rough math: If the artificial virus has a
mortality rate which is the 10% of the mortality rate of the natural
virus and creates an 80% resistance to it then three quarters of those
who would be killed by the natural pandemic virus will be saved. This
difference can be sufficient for the survival of the world as we know
it, in particular a world able to feed its survivors. If the respective
numbers are 1% and 95% then the pandemic toll can be cut dramatically.
In fact, if the post infection resistance is high enough then maybe the
natural virus pandemic itself can be stopped. |
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Robert
medicine forum Guru
Joined: 28 Apr 2005
Posts: 1700
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| Posted: Tue Nov 15, 2005 8:39 am Post subject:
Re: This is probably an unworkable idea about how to stop the flu pandemic under the WCS
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<dianelos@tecapro.com> wrote in message
news:1132043615.732140.90260@g14g2000cwa.googlegroups.com...
| Quote: | This post discusses an idea about how to counter an avian flu pandemic
under the worse case scenario. In that scenario humanity loses the race
against the virus: the fabric of society is destroyed so quickly that
vaccine production or distribution cannot be completed. Flu survivors
die of starvation in large numbers. Civilization is sent back a hundred
years.
|
Close but no cigar. DNA vaccines will be pushed on the forefront because
they are quicker to produce.
"DNA vaccines have several distinct advantages over conventional protein or
attenuated virus vaccines. They can be manufactured inexpensively in a
relatively short period of time and do not need to be refrigerated.
Influenza is the only disease that has caused an actual dip in the human
population in the 20th century. Outbreaks of influenza occur when the HA
glycoprotein mutates (antigenic drift) or changes to a new subtype
(antigenic
shift). ......
Because of the virus's penchant for mutation, scientists must anticipate the
next strain that will emerge when developing vaccines against influenza.
Sometimes, of course, their predictions are inaccurate. To control emerging
influenza pandemics, DNA vaccines, in contrast to conventional vaccines,
could be rapidly deployed after the HA subtype of the particular influenza
strain had been identified.
DNA vaccines are still in the experimental stages. Data from this latest
study will enable VRC researchers to continue refining the DNA model in
designing vaccines against influenza as well as other viruses, most notably
HIV.
http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2000/09/000913203940.htm |
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ziggittes@yahoo.com
medicine forum addict
Joined: 17 Oct 2005
Posts: 54
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| Posted: Tue Nov 15, 2005 1:31 pm Post subject:
Re: This is probably an unworkable idea about how to stop the flu pandemic under the WCS
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More likelly, reverse genetics. You can make infectious viruses with
this technology and the manipulations are the same as with DNA
vaccines, except RG will give you a substantially better immue respones
(single dose vs. multiple doses over many months). Plus, a serious
limitation with the DNA vaccines is that most (all?) use oncogenic
promoters - something that needs to be addressed before you'll ever see
them used clinically. DNA vaccines are many years away. |
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Mark Probert
medicine forum Guru
Joined: 01 May 2005
Posts: 1720
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| Posted: Tue Nov 15, 2005 2:39 pm Post subject:
Re: This is probably an unworkable idea about how to stop the flu pandemic under the WCS
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dianelos@tecapro.com wrote:
| Quote: | This post discusses an idea about how to counter an avian flu pandemic
under the worse case scenario. In that scenario humanity loses the race
against the virus: the fabric of society is destroyed so quickly that
vaccine production or distribution cannot be completed. Flu survivors
die of starvation in large numbers. Civilization is sent back a hundred
years.
The idea is simple: Starting now and continuing up to the probable
pandemic try to engineer a highly contagious but less lethal form of
the prevalent virus. Quickly produce a sufficient quantity of this
artificial virus and store it. If the worse really came to worse
dispense that artificial virus over cities worldwide in order to deny
the natural H5N1 strain that started the pandemic its evolutionary
niche. We are basically talking about a quick-and-dirty worldwide
vaccination with a live virus.
I don't know if we have the technology for quickly producing such
artificial viruses, for estimating their contagiousness and lethality,
and for producing them in sufficient quantity. (Some biological weapons
laboratories would come handy :-(
If we have that technology then I think we should start using it now
and be prepared just in case, by using influenza's virulence to our
advantage. Here is some rough math: If the artificial virus has a
mortality rate which is the 10% of the mortality rate of the natural
virus and creates an 80% resistance to it then three quarters of those
who would be killed by the natural pandemic virus will be saved. This
difference can be sufficient for the survival of the world as we know
it, in particular a world able to feed its survivors. If the respective
numbers are 1% and 95% then the pandemic toll can be cut dramatically.
In fact, if the post infection resistance is high enough then maybe the
natural virus pandemic itself can be stopped.
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If this becomes so, I wil linvest in the alumin foil beanie business, ad
the paranoids will go wild.... |
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Robert
medicine forum Guru
Joined: 28 Apr 2005
Posts: 1700
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| Posted: Tue Nov 15, 2005 6:59 pm Post subject:
Re: This is probably an unworkable idea about how to stop the flu pandemic under the WCS
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<ziggittes@yahoo.com> wrote in message
news:1132061481.539420.52400@g43g2000cwa.googlegroups.com...
| Quote: | More likelly, reverse genetics. You can make infectious viruses with
this technology and the manipulations are the same as with DNA
vaccines, except RG will give you a substantially better immue respones
(single dose vs. multiple doses over many months). Plus, a serious
limitation with the DNA vaccines is that most (all?) use oncogenic
promoters - something that needs to be addressed before you'll ever see
them used clinically. DNA vaccines are many years away.
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They are being used clinically in studies already. So far so good |
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dianelos@tecapro.com
medicine forum beginner
Joined: 15 Nov 2005
Posts: 2
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| Posted: Wed Nov 16, 2005 9:14 am Post subject:
Re: This is probably an unworkable idea about how to stop the flu pandemic under the WCS
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ziggittes@yahoo.com wrote:
| Quote: | More likelly, reverse genetics. You can make infectious viruses with
this technology and the manipulations are the same as with DNA
vaccines, except RG will give you a substantially better immue respones
(single dose vs. multiple doses over many months). Plus, a serious
limitation with the DNA vaccines is that most (all?) use oncogenic
promoters - something that needs to be addressed before you'll ever see
them used clinically. DNA vaccines are many years away.
|
Indeed, DNA vaccines certainly won't be ready for prime time in a few
months, they look several years away at best. There are other
technologies under development for producing conventional vaccines more
quickly and massively, but I don't think that these new production
lines will be in place before one or two years either. The point is
that any time now an avian flu pandemic may break out and the worse
case scenario may unfold. I personally think that the worse case
scenario is quite unlikely but if it happened the toll for humanity
would be so catastrophic that it is worthwhile to prepare something to
prevent a catastrophic pandemic, something that could be completed very
quickly. And I can't think of anything better than to create a much
less dangerous counter-virus and be prepared to infect population
centers with it, as terrifying as the idea may sound. Just hoping that
the s**t won't hit the fan in the next year or two is not good enough.
People are working on live virus vaccines and more efficient delivery
methods (see
http://www3.niaid.nih.gov/news/newsreleases/2005/medimmune.htm and
http://news-service.stanford.edu/news/2005/november9/med-vaccine-110905.html).
I wonder if they are also working on more contagious but still
relatively safe viruses that could be delivered just by spraying cities
with it instead of the normal method of inoculating people one by one
- a method that is probably not quick enough to stop a catastrophic
pandemic that has already broken out. Can this be a case where, quite
ironically, biological warfare technology could be used for helping
humanity? |
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Robert
medicine forum Guru
Joined: 28 Apr 2005
Posts: 1700
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| Posted: Wed Nov 16, 2005 6:48 pm Post subject:
Re: This is probably an unworkable idea about how to stop the flu pandemic under the WCS
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"Dianelos Georgoudis" <dianelos@tecapro.com> wrote in
| Quote: | People are working on live virus vaccines and more efficient delivery
methods (see
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Too slow to grow live virus and not efficient in the long run.
Any new techniques in research now would get approval fast track in case of
urgent need. |
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