2005: continued fossil fuel use will doom planet (mentions Lyme)

CaliforniaLyme · medicine forum Guru Joined: 28 Apr 2005 Posts: 2066

http://www.ww4report.com/node/1255
Energy Department: continued fossil fuel use will doom planet
Submitted by Bill Weinberg on Sat, 11/05/2005 - 01:50.
Well, the White House already appears to be at war with the CIA. Is the
Energy Department next? The latest doom-and-gloom predictions on global
climate change are coming from Livermore Labs, Ed Teller's old stomping
grounds... Not exactly Greenpeace... From Science-a-Go-Go:

Two new studies released this week paint a gloomy picture of a planet
changed beyond recognition by the impact of climate change. The first
study, from the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, looked at the
likely outcomes if fossil fuels continue to be used as they are now
until depleted. Using a coupled climate and carbon cycle model to look
at global climate and carbon cycle changes, the researchers found that
the earth would warm by an average of 8 degrees Celsius (14 degrees
Fahrenheit) by the year 2300. The big increase in temperatures would
cause the disappearance of the polar ice caps and sea levels would rise
by around 7 meters (22 feet).

Govindasamy Bala, lead author of the study, appearing in the American
Meteorological Society's Journal of Climate, said that the estimates of
temperature rise might be understated. "The temperature estimate is
actually conservative because the model didn't take into consideration
changing land use such as deforestation and build out of cities into
outlying wilderness areas," he said. Bala believes that in the polar
regions alone, the temperature could spike more than 20 degrees
Celsius, forcing the land in the region to change from ice and tundra
to boreal forests.

Some of the uncertainty relates to the degree that soil and living
biomass would act as net carbon sinks. While they can extract a
significant amount of carbon dioxide from the burning of fossil fuels,
the real scenario might be quite different. "The land ecosystem would
not take up as much carbon dioxide as the model assumes," Bala said.
"In fact in the model, it takes up much more carbon than it would in
the real world because the model did not have nitrogen/nutrient
limitations to uptake. We also didn't take into account land use
changes, such as the clearing of forests."

The oceans don't fare any better in the new model, with predictions
that about 80 percent of carbon dioxide will end up in the oceans,
making them more acidic. The rise in temperature of the oceans coupled
with the increased acidity would be especially harmful to marine
organisms with shells and skeletal material made out of calcium
carbonate. Calcium carbonate organisms, such as coral, serve as
climate-stabilizers, Bala explained. When the organisms die, their
shells and skeletons settle to the ocean floor, where some dissolve and
some are buried in sediments. These deposits help regulate the
chemistry of the ocean and the amount of carbon dioxide in the
atmosphere. The extinction of these climate-stabilizing marine
organisms could further exacerbate the problems already predicted.

Bala has little time for climate change skeptics. "Even if people don't
believe in it today, the evidence will be there in 20 years," he said.
"These are long-term problems." He said the 2003 European heat wave and
the 2005 Atlantic hurricane season were examples of extreme climate
change. "We definitely know we are going to warm over the next 300
years," he concluded. "In reality, we may be worse off than we
predict."

The second study, from the Harvard Medical School, looked at how
climate change might affect the health of humans and ecosystems, and
the economic impact these changes might have. The study was funded by
reinsurance giant Swiss Re, who believe that the insurance industry
will be a key player in absorbing risk and helping society and business
to adapt.

The study's lead author, Dr. Paul Epstein, believes that climate change
will have profound effects on health. "We found that impacts of climate
change are likely to lead to ramifications that overlap in several
areas including our health, our economy and the natural systems on
which we depend. Analysis of the potential ripple effects stemming from
an unstable climate shows the need for more sustainable practices to
safeguard and insure a healthy future," he said.

Epstein's report contains 10 case studies that outline current effects
of climate change with regard to infectious diseases such as malaria,
West Nile virus, Lyme disease and asthma; extreme weather events such
as heat waves and floods; and ecosystems such as forests, agriculture,
marine habitat and water. Economic implications as well as possible
near-future impacts are projected for each case. The study shows that
warming and extreme weather affect the breeding and range of disease
vectors such as mosquitoes responsible for malaria, which currently
kills 3,000 African children a day, and West Nile virus, which cost the
U.S. $500 million in 1999. Lyme disease, the most widespread
vector-borne disease, is currently increasing in North America as
winters warm and ticks proliferate. The study notes that the area
suitable for tick habitat will increase by 213 percent by the 2080s.
The report also finds that ragweed pollen growth, stimulated by
increasing levels of carbon dioxide, may be contributing to the rising
incidence of asthma.

The study was co-sponsored by the United Nations Development Program,
an organization concerned that the effects of climate change will be
felt most by those in developing nations. "While developed nations are
not immune to the impacts of climate change, those populations that are
already struggling with myriad social challenges will bear the greatest
brunt of climate change," said UN Environment Program Manager Dr.
Charles McNeill.

See our last post on global climate destabilization. This is another
reason why we better pray the peak oil people are right.

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