America stands completely isolated.

Newsgroup Leader Katheen · medicine forum Guru Joined: 20 Jan 2006 Posts: 654

12-5-2006 | 13:57
More than Iran

Alexander Moens

The American commentator Charles Krauthammer recently wrote that by the
time Iran produces its first nuclear weapon, Israel's population will
just reach six million. Iran is now building a nuclear shield to
protect its 'foreign policy' from any serious reprisal. This policy
includes the destruction of Israel and the training of thousands of
suicide bombers against Israeli and Western targets.

Suppose the Iranian regime could be deterred from using nuclear weapons
by the old guarantee of Mutual Assured Destruction (MAD). The United
States and NATO could ensure such a doctrine. The US could sell Israel
submarines with nuclear missiles so that Israel would have assured
counterstrike ability even after an Iranian first strike. Still, MAD
cannot stop Iran's role in a global terrorist fight. The average
casualty rate of a suicide bomber operation in Iraq and Israel is
roughly between 10 and 20 people. Thus even if half of the 50,000
Revolutionary Guards' Special Unit of Martyr Seekers are deployed as
suicide Jihadists, Iran can inflict more than 250,000 casualties.

Now look at the world players and Western options. China will not be
neutral in a dispute with Iran. News sources indicate that China is
planning to invest $100 billion in Iranian oil and natural gas fields
in the next twenty-five years. China could care less if the Middle East
tied down American and European capability for decades or if its policy
endangered Israel.

Russia is the main supplier of uranium to Iran. If China does not veto
American action against Iran, Russia will. Vladimir Putin has
unashamedly ended Russia's experiment with Western democracy. The
British historian Martin Wight once wrote that great powers do not die
in their bed. Russia is back. High oil prices give Moscow the income to
update its nuclear fleet. Russia is the world's third largest
producer of crude oil and the largest supplier of natural gas. The
European Union buys 27 procent of its oil and 25 procent of its natural
gas from Russia. The world's second largest natural gas supplier is
Iran. What a choice.

Europe is caught between energy dependence on Russia and an immigrant
community of Muslims that will not tolerate a strong European position
against Islamic radicalism.

German Chancellor, Angela Merkel, is working hard to find a compromise
between China, Russia, and America. The diplomatic deal she is looking
for is not a solution. Economic sanctions mean little when Iran only
has to halt part of its oil exports to spike oil prices beyond $100 per
barrel, inflicting far more damage on Western economies than they can
impose on Iran.

America stands completely isolated. Not counting Israel, no country
would support military action against Iran. The American people have
lost faith in Iraq and want US forces to come home. President Bush has
lost political power. He could not lead the Congress, not even his own
Republicans against Iran unless the United States was first attacked.
The Iranian president Mahmoud Ahmadinejad is a true zealot but
Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and the Supreme National Security Council are
not likely to make that mistake.

A serious reader of Scripture knows that it is no coincidence that the
tiny country of Israel remains in the eye of the global political
storm. The same reader should be concerned that the only country still
protecting Israel appears to be reigned in from all sides.

The author is professor of international relations at Simon Fraser
University, Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada.

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